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Bold Prediction No. 1: The Buffalo Bills are going to win 15 games this season.
Bold Prediction No. 2: The Bills fans will drink, party, and powerslam each other through more plastic tailgate tables than ever before.
Bold Prediction No. 3: The Buffalo Bills are going to lose an absolute heartbreaker in the AFC title game.
Bold Prediction No. 4: The Bills fans will be really sad for a few days, dust themselves off, and go buy more tables, because 2023 is going to be their year!
If you believe the tabloids, and I do, Mr. & Mrs. GOAT are on the outs. They’re living in separate mansions, eating separate avocados, the whole thing. By all accounts the marital issues stem from the fact that Brady reversed his retirement decision earlier this year, choosing a 23rd NFL season over “more time with his family.”
As a guy who routinely chooses far less significant activities over more time with my family, I tend to side with Tommy here. Only in professional sports are guys in their late-30s or early-40s expected to just retire and spend time with their wife and kids. It’s preposterous! Imagine if an electrician just decided to stop going into work when they turned 38 because they’re a little sore and it’s their wife’s turn to shine.
Putting his marriage aside, it was a great Sunday for TB12. First the Patriots got demolished by the Dolphins, providing further evidence that “The Patriot Way” might have been most influenced by the fact that they had the best QB in league history. Then in the nightcap Tom lead his Bucs to a decisive win over the Cowboys, showing that whatever is going on in couples counseling isn’t going to affect his play on the field.
The most impressive quarterback performance in Week 1 did not belong to Allen or Brady, but instead by the guy you may have forgotten about. You may have forgotten that Mahomes had previously been dominant in games that Tyreek Hill was absent, and that his departure was not going to affect KC’s offensive production. You may have forgotten that Mahomes has only lost a couple meaningful games in the past 5 years, and you could argue that those losses were flukes. You may have forgotten that even during his “disappointing” statistical season in 2021 he still finished with the 3rd most completions, 4th most passing yards and 4th most passing touchdowns in the league.
The problem for the other 15 teams in the AFC is that Patrick Mahomes has not forgotten. His performance in Arizona on Sunday is evidence that this man is on a mission. His odds to win league MVP were 8-to-1 when the season began, and have moved to 5-to-1. When he outduels Justin Herbert on Thursday, I expect them to drop again.
Two of the most surprising (and pathetic) performances this week came from the teams who squared off in February. Both the Rams and the Bengals appeared a little groggy after a short offseason.
First the Rams pooped their pants in Thursday’s opener, and then the Bengals did everything imaginable to lose at home to the Steelers. Everyone’s Favorite Player Joe Burrow turned the ball over 5 (!!!) times, while star kicker Evan McPherson missed an extra point at the end of regulation and a short field goal in OT, both of which would have won the game.
I expect both to rebound in favorable Week 2 matchups, but not a great look for anyone predicting a Super Bowl rematch.
THE KING IN THE NORTH!!! THE KING IN THE NORTH!!!
Did the Vikings unseat the Packers as the best team in the NFC Norse? No, because we have 16 regular season games left, and Week 1 can always be wonky. Green Bay has won this division 8 of the last 11 years for a reason.
But that said, this was about as decisive a divisional loss as I can remember Aaron Rodgers suffering. He clearly doesn’t trust his young receivers, as Davante Adams’ absence looms large. The Vikings on the other hand were firing on all cylinders, aided by the fact that the Packers decided not to cover Justin Jefferson, who went off for 184 yards and a couple TDs.
Every year I tell myself that I will only bet on underdogs in Week 1, and every year I refuse to listen to myself and instead tease favorites and lose money.
Every. Single. Year.
I’m ashamed to report that 2022 was no different. After a backdoor cover by the Lions and an absurd loss by the Bengals, I was once again kicking myself. The dogs went 9-6 on Sunday and Monday, with five of them winning outright and the Texans tying the Colts.
Another thing I tell myself annually is to not overreact to Week 1. The books are hoping that the public will get on the points train a week late, and have set some enticingly large point spreads. DON’T FALL FOR IT! The Packers, Rams, Bengals, and Broncos will all bounce back against inferior quarterbacks, and this Bills team is going to dominate their home opener on 10 days of rest. I’m not guaranteeing all of them cover double-digit lines, but I don’t recommend betting on shitty teams and hoping they will just lose by 9 instead of 11.
Montezuma penalizes tourists with diarrhea for the crime of drinking Mexican tap water. Pete Carroll’s Seahawks penalized Russell Wilson with a Monday Night Football loss for the crime of leaving Seattle for “greener” pastures.
After suffering a 17-16 defeat in his Broncos debut I think Russ would have probably preferred the shits. Not to say that the outcome was his fault: Wilson had 340 passing yards and didn’t turn the ball over… but losing to Geno Smith is still losing to Geno Smith.
I have one question for everyone who stumbled out of the gates in their survivor pools by picking the Colts, Bengals, Titans, 49ers or Broncos: WHAT WERE YOU THINKING!?! In the 2,022nd year of our lord we were blessed with JOE FLACCO starting an NFL football game for the NEW YORK JETS. Opportunities like that don’t come around often…CARPE DIEM, PEOPLE!
It isn’t often that a kicker is the highest scoring player on your fantasy team, but Koo’s 19-point day just might have been the performance that carried you. The Seoul of the Field Goal drilled four, include a pair from 50+ yards to give his Falcons an insurmountable 16 point lead in the 4th quarter.
Thursday Teaser: Chiefs +1.5, UNDER 60
Moneyline Parlay: Bengals -350 vs Cooper Rush + Browns -250 vs Joe Flacco (-102)
Lock of the Week: Ravens -3.5 vs Tua
Survivor Pool Pick (Used Ravens): Packers