There are fewer than 80 days until the midterm elections, but I already need a mental break from congressional politics. As a political junkie, the last few weeks of summer are the last real time we can have before being consumed by the post-Labor Day general election push.
For me, a mental break doesn’t mean reading or writing fiction. It doesn’t mean cooking or gardening, or trading my favorite political podcasts and television for Marvel movies (although I do love Marvel movies…). It means daydreaming about Presidential elections, past and future. I reflect on the 2008 Presidential election, which was so wonderful I get teary-eyed just thinking about it. And then, I find myself already speculating on the 2020 Democratic primary, which will start in earnest on November 7th, irrespective of how well Democrats perform in the midterms on November 6th.
The 2020 Democratic primary will be the first truly open contest since 2008 (sorry 2016). It’s no exaggeration to suggest that dozens of officeholders, party luminaries, half the Democratic U.S. Senate caucus, and celebrities (seriously, more celebrities) will consider running for office. And, for better or worse, many of them will ultimately take the plunge and do so.
We are a long way from the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucuses much less the next national convention, but we’re already on the hunt for good ways to measure which campaigns are likely to win, or enter the convention able to win the nomination. Here are five important themes that will play out over the next 2 years and give clues as to what might happen in the 2020 presidential election..
So who’s it going to be? My best guesses on the 2020 Democratic Party presidential nominee are as follows: